Private Equity

Price the target's data gap into the deal model, before you sign.

What we do for a fund and its portfolio companies

For portfolio companies with USD 20 million to 1 billion of revenue.

9xReturn on a pricing programme
550%ROI on stock availability
4 daysFaster monthly close
$3.26MYearly saving at full maturity
From programmes in distribution, retail, professional services and manufacturing. The 9x and the 4 days are measured; the 550% and the $3.26M come from business cases.
Six steps

Six steps, from before signing to the sale

  1. Data and AI audit6 to 12 weeks, before signing or right after closing

    We audit the company's systems, data, reporting, security and team in six areas, trace one or two real business questions from source to answer, and rate every finding by severity with the effort to fix it. The cost of bringing the data platform and governance up to the market average goes into the deal model before signing. For a target that sells AI, we check what actually runs in production, on what data, and whether its effect is measured.

  2. Use cases, priced by returnAfter entry

    We review the company's processes and mark the ones data or AI can improve, each with an estimated return and the effort it needs, ranked from the highest return. At one regulated online business, 11 of 29 processes qualified for AI; nine went to plain automation and ten were parked.

  3. BuildThe top of the list

    We take the highest-return cases into production and leave a working solution in the company's own systems.

  4. Roadmap, people and processesThe rest of the hold

    We lay out the plan for the whole holding period, help hire the people on the company side and set up the processes, so the company carries it forward on its own.

  5. One reporting layer across the portfolioFor the fund

    Shared KPI definitions and one monthly pack for the fund, fed from each company's own systems, so holdings can be compared on the same terms.

  6. Before exitAhead of the sale process

    Numbers a buyer's diligence can rely on: reconciled to source, with documented definitions, lineage back to the posting and an audit trail.

How the data and AI audit runs, what the fund gets and what it costs

The situation

What the fund sees from the outside

A data and AI due diligence before signing reduces both risks: it shows whether the company can keep up, and it prices the cost of fixing its data into the deal model.

Why now

The funds that pull ahead build the data approach once

Apollo Global Management hired an operating partner in mid-2021 who now heads its Data, Digital and AI team. Its AI system looks across purchasing contracts and invoices for more than 40 portfolio companies. In one of them, an analysis of 15,000 software purchase agreements delivered a procurement cost reduction of more than 65%.

A mid-market fund with 9 to 12 portfolio companies can run the same logic at its own scale: the approach, the people and the patterns are built once and reused in every company.

Most portfolio companies between USD 20 million and 1 billion of revenue are too big to run on spreadsheets and too small to hire a Big Four firm for every data question.

Source: T. Davenport and R. Bean, Building AI Capabilities Into Portfolio Companies at Apollo, MIT Sloan Management Review.
Case studies

Where the return came from

Case study 1 · Global manufacturer

Manufacturing: machine efficiency

Before the shift starts, the plant manager sees output against plan, which machine stopped and why, and what failed quality control. It used to wait for month-end.

Starting point

No shared KPI definitions. Plant results could not be compared, and reading the data took expert knowledge.

What we built

One model joining machine sensors, actual production from the ERP and the production plan, with daily, weekly and machine-efficiency reports.

Result

USD 3.26M a year at full maturity, after USD 351k in year one and USD 990k in year two, from material yield, first-pass quality and machine utilisation.

What it means for a portfolio company: with EUR 100 million of revenue, raw materials typically cost EUR 50 to 65 million, so one point of material yield is EUR 500k to 650k a year straight to EBITDA, and about EUR 4 to 5 million of value at an 8x exit multiple.

Client's business case, prepared before the build. The portfolio company example is illustrative.

Case study 2 · European distributor

Distribution: pricing discipline

A recommended price that a sales rep can override with one click is only a suggestion, and the difference leaks out of the margin.

Starting point

The system suggested a price, and sales reps regularly went below it. Nobody saw how often, by whom or by how much.

What we did

Every deviation from the recommended price became visible to everyone who sets prices, and we made sure people used it. We deliberately kept the option to go below the price: visibility and ownership of the result did the work.

Result

EUR 18M of new margin in three years, on about EUR 1M to build the tool and about EUR 1M to roll it out: about 9x.

Margin measured after completion; effort estimated.

Case study 3 · European retailer

Retail: stock availability

Nobody could answer a simple question: why is this bestseller not on the shelf?

Starting point

Seven tools calculated the same KPIs, each differently. Data was pulled by hand, and finding the cause of a stock-out took days and usually ended without an answer.

What we built

One automated flow of sales, warehouse and delivery data in one model, replacing a fifteen-year-old database. A few reports with one definition per KPI, and the cause of every stock-out visible.

Result

EUR 2.6M of margin recovered in three years, on about EUR 400k: ROI 550%. EUR 600k in the first year and EUR 1M a year after.

Business case.

Case study 4 · International services group

Finance: the variance review in every subsidiary

The same variance analysis, repeated by hand in every subsidiary, four times a year.

Starting point

Analysts in each subsidiary calculated and explained variances by hand, and reviewers checked them. The knowledge of what matters sat in people's heads and left with them.

What we built

On the existing data warehouse, playbooks for every line of the statement: algorithms, materiality thresholds and alert words. Institutional knowledge written down and turned into the company's own asset.

Result

Up to 1,552 working days a year: 557 in the cautious scenario, ROI 104% over three years, and 1,552 in the target one, ROI 391%.

Business case scenarios.

Case study 5 · Online business in a regulated industry

Growth without adding people

The foundation came first, and AI went only where it paid back.

Foundation

One customer view shared by sales, finance and compliance, refreshed before the day starts, and segmentation in production with a control group, so its effect on results is visible.

Then AI

We reviewed 29 processes across five teams and priced each one. Only 11 suited AI; nine went to plain automation and ten were parked.

Result

CHF 120k a year saved in customer service, and CHF 230k of regulatory exposure reduced.

Business case.

Who is behind it

We built Astral Forest with our own money

So we know how this decision looks from the owner's side.

MD
Co-founder and owner

Michał Dębski, Managing Director and Solution Architect

There is a moment every leader knows. You ask a simple question, "What are our margins this quarter?", and two weeks later three departments send three different answers.

I have spent 15 years inside complex organisations across Europe and beyond, and I have seen how much time, money and energy is lost when data is scattered, inconsistent or simply not actionable. I co-founded Astral Forest to make data work for the people running the business.

Today we help CEOs, CFOs and business owners in fintech, manufacturing and professional services to:

  • Get a single, reliable version of their numbers across all departments
  • Automate the manual reporting work that drains their teams
  • Build AI assistants that answer business questions in seconds

One client used to spend 2,000 person-days a year producing a quarterly financial report. After working with us, every employee gets the answer they need in 15 seconds.

If your data is your biggest untapped asset, or your biggest hidden cost, let's talk.

SS
Co-founder and owner

Stanisław Szostak

For more than ten years I have led BI and data programmes for large international companies. What decides their success is people: I like building a team around a shared objective and keeping it there until the result shows in the numbers.

My working day mixes several roles:

  • People manager for our team of consultants and developers
  • Account manager, building long-term relationships with our clients
  • Delivery manager, in the Product Owner or project manager seat when a programme needs one
  • Data advisor, doing the business analysis myself, because that is where the value of a project is decided

I have lived ten years abroad, in four countries, so working across cultures and languages comes naturally, and that matters when a client's teams sit in several of them.

We work from Poland for clients on the US East Coast, in London, France, Switzerland and the Netherlands, in Polish, English and French. Our typical client is a group with USD 1 to 5 billion of revenue; a portfolio company gets the same practice at its own scale and price.

Next step

Pick one portfolio company or one acquisition target

An audit, a list of use cases priced by return, and a decision on what comes next.

We reply within one business day.